Category Archives: Double Down

Your Guide to the 2014 Super Bowl Prop Bets

Sportsbook-Prop-Bets

Your Guide to the 2014 Super Bowl Prop Bets

Contribution by M Jones

It’s almost time for the big game, so people all across the country are finalizing super bowl squares and prop bets, because let’s be honest a big part of sports is the excitement over gambling.  Given that, I wanted to touch on the 15 most interesting prop bets that I came across this morning so people all around can consider making a few bucks on the super bowl while drinking and eating excessively tonight. 

If I was placing some cash on various prop bets tonight, these are the ones i would be interested in.

1 – MVP of the Super Bowl

  Peyton Manning (DEN) QB 11/10  
Russell Wilson (SEA) QB 15/4  
Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB 4/1  
Percy Harvin (SEA) WR 10/1  
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) RB 18/1  
Richard Sherman (SEA) 20/1  
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR 33/1  
Earl Thomas (SEA) 33/1  
Eric Decker (DEN) WR 33/1  
Golden Tate (SEA) WR 33/1  
Wes Welker (DEN) WR 33/1  
Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR 40/1  
Julius Thomas (DEN) TE 40/1  
Kam Chancellor (SEA) 50/1  
Matt Prater (DEN) 75/1  
Champ Bailey (DEN) 100/1  
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DEN) 100/1  
Michael Bennett (SEA) 100/1  
Montee Ball (DEN) RB 100/1  
Steven Hauschka (SEA) 100/1  
Danny Trevathan (DEN) 150/1  
Duke Ihenacho (DEN) 150/1  
Zach Miller (SEA) TE 150/1  
Field (Any Other Player) 28/1  

Best Bet – Peyton Manning, but the odds aren’t great for gambling purposes.  Therefore, I will go with Wes Welker at 33/1 as the goal is to make some cash.  He has a lot of pressure to redeem himself after having game-ending drop 2 seasons ago against the Giants with the Patriots.  Fitting if he is able to redeem himself in their home stadium.  The Seattle corner backs are great, but they will most likely be busy with Thomas and Decker on the outside so look for Wes to be running wild across the middle all night.   

2 – Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the mention first in his speech?

  Teammates 1/1  
God 3/1  
Fans 11/2  
Other Team or Player on Other Team 10/1  
Family 12/1  
Coach 14/1  
Owner 25/1  
Does not mention any of the above 9/2  

Best Bet – Probably God, but who knows there may be a wildcard who throws in a ‘Ba-Ba-Booey’.  If Wes Welker wins, he may even make a quick pitch to his New Jersey jump-off and try to set the tone for some post-game celebration action.  I will go with a surprise and say family at 12/1.

3 – Will Percy Harvin be injured in the game? (Must be injured and reported by broadcasters and not return to game)

  Yes +300  
No -500  

Best Bet – YES.  No doubt here.  This guy is the opposite of durable.  Great investment Seattle.

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4 – How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha” during the game?

  O/U 27½  (-150)o

(+110)u

 
     

Best Bet – Under – Peyton is too smart to keep having the same pre-snap calls.  I am guessing he will go searching for some new advertisement dollars and replace ‘Omaha’ with ‘4 Loko’.

Four Loko

5 – Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff?

  Erin Andrews -140  
Pam Oliver EVEN  

Best Bet – Erin has all the TV mojo after the Sherman debacle.  Hopefully 50 Cent is not on the sideline this time.

130225ErinAndrews1_300x206

6 – How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game?

  O/U (-250)o(+170)u  
     

Best Bet – Over.  The brother of Peyton will get some press and he has won 2 super bowls for the Giants so he will be all over the broadcast looking as dumb as he usually does. 

eli-manning-i-came

7 – Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?

  Yes -120  
No -120  

Best Bet – Yes, no doubt here either.  This guy will be crying multiple times before kickoff.

 8 – Will Renee Fleming forget or omit at least 1 word of the official US National Anthem?

  Yes +300  
No -500  

Best Bet – Hell yeah, I am looking purely for some entertainment tonight.  Hopefully she has a full meltdown and Mo Cheeks steps in to help out again.  He has some free time, because on most nights he is not coaching the Pistons.

9 – How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the official US National Anthem?

  Over 2 minutes 25 seconds +150  
Under 2 minutes 25 seconds -200  

Best Bet – Going on the assumption that i win bet #8, i say over.

10 – Who will have more Points in the game?

  Steven Hauschka (SEA) K EVEN  
Matt Prater (DEN) K -130  

Best Bet – In case the Super Bowl turns into a shitty game, you still have some action.  Hauschka will have more chances as the Seattle offense will not be putting up huge numbers. 

11 – Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game?

  Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR -12½ (EVEN)  
Wes Welker (DEN) WR +12½ (-130)  

Best Bet – Purely rolling with Wes MVP pick at this point, given Sherman will probably be on Demaryius.

12 – Who will have more Rushing Yards in the 1ST QUARTER?

  Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB -7½ (-125)  
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) RB +7½ (-105)  

Best Bet – This one is risky because it depends who gets the ball first.  I will say the safer bet is skittle man.

yahoo_lynch_skittles

13 – Total TD Passes – Peyton Manning (DEN)

  0 10/1  
1 7/2  
2 2/1  
3 5/2  
4 9/2  
5 or more 10/1  

Best Bet – Somewhere in the 2-3 range.  Tough to call, i think Peyton will have a monster day so I’m rolling with 3.

14 – Longest Rush – Russell Wilson (SEA)

  O/U 12½ (-145)o(+115)u  
     

Best bet – Over.  If Seattle has ANY chance to win, he will have to get out and cause trouble on some designed running plays.

15 – Player to score the first TD in the game?

  Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB 5/1  
Julius Thomas (DEN) TE 15/2  
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR 8/1  
Wes Welker (DEN) WR 8/1  
Eric Decker (DEN) WR 17/2  
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) RB 9/1  
Percy Harvin (SEA) WR 10/1  
Russell Wilson (SEA) QB 12/1  
Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR 16/1  
Golden Tate (SEA) WR 16/1  
Montee Ball (DEN) RB 16/1  
Jacob Tamme (DEN) TE 18/1  
Zach Miller (SEA) TE 18/1  
Peyton Manning (DEN) QB 40/1  
Robert Turbin (SEA) RB 40/1  
Field 15/2  
No TD scored in the game 100/1  

Best Bet – This is always one of my favorite bets to look at.  There are so many variables including who wins the kickoff, redzone play calling and so on.  I will go with a longshot for Montee Ball at the goal line for a potential nice payout of 16/1.

Screen-Shot-2014-01-24-at-3_49_53-PM

Good luck!!

Double Down – Super Bowl Odds

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Contribution by: A. Fletcher

This Sunday, a projected 111.3 + million viewers will be tuned in to watch Super Bowl XLVIII. Statisticians are expecting this years viewership to break the Super Bowl XLVI (2012) record, which was the 111.3 million. Other than last year, viewership has consistently grown through the past 6 years. The Super Bowl is known to be pretty much the last major media event around.

The Match-up: 

MetLife Stadium, home of the New York Giants and the New York Jets will host as the Super Bowl site. If the Farmer’s Almanac means anything to anyone, it will be played during an “ice storm”. Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks, a battle of the no-shit best teams in the NFL right now, with a mean spread of 2.0 this game just cannot be easily predicted. The #1 best offense in the game vs. the #1 best defense in the game, sets the stage for what someone may call a “hype mission”, haha. This will be the 54th time these two teams have played each other. That number is rather high, because Seattle used be Denver’s rival in the AFC West before moving to the NFC. As far as the past goes, Denver holds a 34-19-0 record against the hawks, according the mcubed.net. No other teams have met that many times before playing each other in the Super Bowl.  Just a little history, not that it matters though.

Snowy Metlife

Numbers:

While betting on the Super Bowl, instead of looking at the historical items, I like to look at what is current and what is relevant. Who is coming to win? Who is coming more prepared? What the numbers say about what they have done this season. I will man up and admit that I was dead wrong on the Pats vs. Broncos game. I thought NE was going to be able to pull it out. I was dead wrong. Denver is the best team that the NFL has seen in the past couple of years. Denver lead the regular season in overall Scoring Offense, Yards per Game, and Passing Offense. Seattle is not in the top 5 in any of those 3 categories. Seattle on the other side of the ball though, lead the regular season in overall Scoring Defense, Overall Defense (opponents yards per game), and Passing Defense, and Denver is not in the top 5 any of those 3 categories. This is a match made in NFL heaven. With Denver trouncing New England a couple weeks ago, they have the highest average winning/scoring margin in playoff games this year as well. Seattle really has not completely ran over anyone in these playoffs. A touchdown one way or the other and this could be the Carolina Panthers playing Denver on Sunday.

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My John Madden statement: Whoever moves the ball more effectively will win this game, and that team will be Denver. Seattle is truly a great defense, but Denver is ‘that’ much better of an offense that Seattle will be put in a corner early and often and will not be able to keep up with scoring opportunities. Peyton Manning is just simply  ——–>

ColdBlooded

Thanks for the pic Z. Ficht

I am taking Denver ALL DAY at -2, that’s crackhead prices. Also, I am sticking with the Under 48 total points, as my score prediction is Denver 27- Seattle14 .

Remember to go get your free Super Bowl squares that Motown Meltdown is hosting.

https://motownmeltdown.wordpress.com/2014/01/23/motown-meltdown-super-bowl-squares-win-50/

See above link for details. We are paying out $50 to the final score winner. There are limited spots available.

Motown Meltdown Super Bowl Squares – Win $50

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$50, winner takes all. ONLY PAYS OUT THE FINAL SCORE WINNING SQUARE. 

4 Square limit per person. If squares are not filled within 24 hrs of kickoff, we will open up the remaining to whomever wants them. Cut off time is 2 hours before kickoff.

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Thanks for participating. Enjoy the game and goodluck!

Who are the conference champs after today?

Double Down on NFL Conference Championship Playoffs

 

Contribution By: A. FletcherOdds NFL 01-18-14_Final_Page_1

 

 

Thought Process:

604px-Afc_championship_logo.svg

 New England Vs. Denver

Any other year I would have just called this game Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. But this year is an exception to that, as Tom Brady is not working with an “average” New England Patriots team, and Peyton Manning is working with an exceptional Denver Broncos team. Every other year, Tom Brady would win this argument as who is more lethal. This year, the Denver Broncos offense as a whole is more lethal. But, changing my argument that Denver cannot be beat by anyone, I am going with New England this week. My thoughts originally led down the path of, yeah the Pats are different this year and not as good as previous years, but then I thought… they were 12-4 in the regular season. That is not a record of a team that weaseled there way into the playoffs (just ask lions fans, who would murder for this type of success). This is a record of a team that beat a 10-1 Broncos team as the Broncos were rolling through the NFL destroying pretty much every team in there path, not to mention this New England win was a week after Denver had just snuffed KC and stopped the Chiefs 9-0 winning streak that they had started the season with. I would have to say that Denver’s confidence had to be at their season high going into that New England game. The average spread is +5.0 for the Pats. I’m sticking with that and from a touchdown standpoint, I would take them on the money line as well for a straight up win. The average O/U is 57 points, which is very high. But then again, we are talking about two old school gunners that have a passion for making statements on the scoreboard. My instincts tell me that this is a very achievable overall score, but my gambling junky side says NO FUCKING WAY. I am taking the under. It comes down to this. I could lay out the PPG for each of these teams during the regular season, but that does not apply here. I think that this is a very unique game, and may end up being a better game than the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning has a better team, but Tom Brady is known to win games when they count. We will see how this pans out. Just note that this type of game is not gambling friendly, which makes it more fun. This game is not easily predicted and the line is probably inflated by an overwhelming amount of Broncos fans and new bandwagon fans betting on this game and seeking a little retribution.

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NFCChampionship2010

San Francisco Vs. Seattle

I can stick with a standard analysis on this game. Defense will win this game, and both teams have great defenses, again both are top 5 for total defense during the regular season. Bother teams have very similar QBs. Wilson and Kaepernick both have just over 3,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards during the regular season. San Fran is averaging 25.4 PPG and Seattle 26.1 PPG. Given the defensive battle that this destined to be the O/U was weighed down and PPG was not as big of a factor as it normally is. In my opinion, this is the game that Seattle wanted, not that they would have minded the Panthers, but the 49ers are an inter-division team that Seattle gets to see twice a year, which means they planning comes more natural than it would for Carolina. Now, this goes both ways, but who is more of a student of the game… A resounding “Russell Wilson” should have been heard loud and clear. He is much more intelligent in the way he approaches the NFL than Kaepernick. Wilson makes less bad decisions and takes better care of the rock, although this wont show in stats because he has actually thrown more interceptions than Kaepernick, he also gets sacked more. But if you have watched these guys play, Russell Wilson has no one to bail him out, like Anquan Boldin and Crabtree as of late. Seattle’s wide receiver game is not forgiving at all, with Golden Tate being the best option all season.  Despite having a worse overall team, Wilson has found a way to win more games than the 49ers. I think they will be meeting the Pats in the Super Bowl. The spread was -3, 3 points is usually a fluctuation I give home teams on the spread. So with that said, I am taking Seattle with the spread and predicting a win by 8. The O/U was 40 points, I think that will be met easily, I am taking Over.

Down and Dirty on Upcoming NCAA Tourney Odds

2014 NCAA Championship Favorites

Contribution By: A. Fletcher

(Provided by http://www.bovada.lv)

Favorites                                             Vegas Odds

  1. Arizona                                                           11/2
  2. Michigan State                                          13/2
  3. Kansas                                                            15/2
  4. Kentucky                                                        15/2
  5. Syracuse                                                          9/1
  6. Blah
  7. Blah
  8. Blah
  9. Blah
  10. Blah
  11. Blah
  12. Blah
  13. Blah
  14. Blah
  15. Blah
  16. Blah
  17. Blah
  18. Blah
  19. michigan…                                          40/1

With the end of NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl right round the corner, March Madness, a basketball fan and a gambling junkie’s favorite sporting event is looming. I wanted to quickly talk about the favorites this year, most notably the overall second favorite, Michigan State, and then very little on the rather unexciting 19th favorite, THE University of Michigan Wolverines (fart noise). This article will beg the question, do I think MSU will win the NCAA tourney this year? The answer… I don’t know, do I think they have a chance? Yes, I believe they have a great chance. I won’t lie; anyone who knows me knows I can tend to be partial.

Getting Down To It:

Plain and simple, MSU is bigger, taller and stronger than Zona, Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse, and there is no illusion to that when these guys get on the floor. I know, a comparison of size can sometimes be over rated, especially when it is a comparison only against a small data set. This is just for arguments sake.  See below for a little table to illustrate what I mean.

Book3_001

Basketball has and always will be a game of inches. Men are made dunk by dunk, and boys go home crying from air balls (See 1983 NCAA Championship Game ending). Each half-inch of height or quarter ounce of weight can make or break you as a hooper. I believe that this little comparison gives MSU an edge.

Adreian Payne, Jordan Morgan

Historically who has the better shot of going deep into the tourney? Well, Kentucky has 48 Elite 8 appearances. Nobody else in the top 5 is worth mentioning against that number of elite 8 looks. Interesting enough though, when it comes to final four attendance, it starts to tighten up a bit, Kentucky comes in with 15, Kansas with 14, Michigan State with 8, Syracuse with 5 and Arizona has made 4 trips. Oh and Michigan has 5** (those asterisks mean that two of those final four appearances have been vacated by the NCAA for: 1. Money Laundering, and 2. Illegal Gambling, thought I should point that out – fucking cheaters). On to ships… Kentucky leads with 8, Kansas has 5, Michigan State has 2, Syracuse has 1 (courtesy of Melo’), and Arizona also has 1. Looking at that, Kentucky traditionally has an upper hand.

2013-2014 season stats are a different story. I looked at the standard PPG, FG%, 3P%, and then I added a couple of stats that I feel are very important in winning overall. Those being Offensive Rebounds (ORPG), Assists Per Game (APG), and Turnovers Per Game (TOPG). This is a lot to look at, but I would argue that these are the most important numbers when picking who has the best chance of winning this years championship.

Book32_001      

You see where I am going with this, State, hands down looks better on paper. That .400 3P% is just down right murderous. 18.5 assists per game (2nd overall in NCAA Div-1), is a great number for a team that likes to move the ball around, but they also pay for it in turnovers, although not the highest, there is room for improvement.

My Pre-Bracket and Pre-Selection Predictions:

1 seeds: Michigan State (obviously), Arizona, Syracuse, and Iowa State (these boys can ball).

2 seeds: Wisconsin, Wichita State, Villanova, and Florida (Ohio State could sneak in here).

Bold Prediction: UCLA makes it into the final four.

Not-So Bold Prediction: Syracuse will continue to be bracket wrecker for anyone who takes them past the second round, which 80% of the world does EVERY YEAR.

Quick Snap-Shot Into Michigan’s Tournament Outlook:

To put the 40/1 odds into perspective a.k.a. Michigan’s chances of winning an NCAA championship this year for someone who is not familiar with fractional odds. This is the same odds that Vegas gives the Brooklyn Nets of winning an NBA Championship this year, a team that is currently ranked 9th in the Eastern Conference, a conference that the Pistons currently are ranked 7th. So, long story short, NOBODY has confidence that UofM can win, or really do anything in the NCAA tourney this year. Maybe when McGary is healed from his back surgery (and injury that has been very secretive, my theory… meth addiction cover up), Michigan can crack the top 15 and be semi-relevant again.

Mitch McGary dunked on

I will touch down on this topic again as the tourney gets closer, and get into a more player specific analysis. This was just a quick and dirty look into the favorites for the 2014 tourney. Selection Sunday is March 16th, stay tuned, and let me know what your thoughts are.

–          Austin